Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (2025)

Invest 97L was upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend residents should begin their hurricane preparations as forecasters expect the storm to make landfall Thursday as a Category 2 or Category 3 Hurricane Helene.

Here is the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine 11 p.m. update:

Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (1)

Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued along portions of Florida's southwestern coast as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine continues its slow crawl north-northwestward, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory.

The NHC's experimental forecast cone for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has shifted slightly more toward Florida's Big Bend area. The storm is still expected to become Hurricane Helene by Wednesday and a major hurricane when it makes landfall Thursday.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have remained at 35 mph since 5 p.m. Monday, but the storm is expected to continue rapidly intensify once it begins moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.

Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach to Flamingo... 2 to 4 feet
Dry Tortugas... 1 to 3 feet
Florida Keys... 1 to 3 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine 8 p.m. update: Hurricane Helene expected to form by Wednesday

Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (2)

The National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. update did not change much as Florida Panhandle and Gulf Coast residents brace for a potential Category 3 Hurricane Helene to make landfall Thursday, though AccuWeather says it could get as strong as a Category 4 over the Gulf of Mexico.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is heading north-northwest at 7 mph. A faster northward-northwestward motion is expected to occur on Wednesday or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have maintained around 35 mph, according to the latest update.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Grand Cayman.

AccuWeather expects the eye to most likely track along the Gulf Coast between the eastern tip of Louisiana to the central part of the Florida Peninsula late Thursday, but a track into the Florida peninsula could mean an earlier landfall.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine 5 p.m. update: Chances for life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds along Florida Panhandle increasing

Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (3)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is anticipated to strengthen significantly over the next few days as the National Hurricane Center expects a Thursday evening landfall along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend areas, according to the 5 p.m. update.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for the Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

Maximum sustained winds increased to 35 mph in the latest update, and the NHC says Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could become Hurricane Helene by Wednesday as it moves into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico and continues to strengthen.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. It's expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.

It's still too early to pinpoint exactly where the storm will make landfall or determine the exact impacts, but the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the state's western coast is increasing.

What’s the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine — 2 p.m. update

Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (4)

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Tropical Cyclone Nine as it continues to move north across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Nine is now about 110 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 340 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are still at 30 mph.

State of emergency declared across much of Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 counties in Florida including Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. Because of the potential damage forecast with what is now Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is projected to constitute a major disaster, a state of emergency was ordered for Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

What’s the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine —11 a.m. update

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Mexico and Cuba have begun issuing tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches for impacted areas.

Here's a summary of the NHC's latest Tropical Cyclone Nine discussion:

A low-pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized storms.
The system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
It's expected to bring tropical storm conditions to land areas soon.
The system is moving northward and will likely turn northwest, passing through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico.
It's forecast to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf, potentially reaching the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
The system's large size and fast speed mean its impacts may extend well beyond its center, especially to the east.
Environmental conditions favor significant strengthening, with potential to reach major hurricane intensity.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued for parts of western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Residents along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including Florida's Panhandle and west coast, should monitor the system's progress.

Where is Tropical Cyclone Nine now?

Hurricane Helene could form by Wednesday as threat increases for Florida Panhandle (5)

Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered over latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West as of 10 a.m. The system is moving north near 6 mph. It’s expected to begin moving northwestward on Tuesday and Tuesday night before it shifts toward a faster northward or north-northeast trajectory over the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Nine is about 100 miles southwest of Grand Cayman
Tropical Cyclone Nine is about 290 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
Present movement: North-northwest at 6 mph

Tropical Cyclone Nine's expected impacts

Rainfall: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals of around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding.

Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

Storm surge: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday.